2008-07-09
芝加哥大学经济系的两个传统
一是重视实证，二是要求外国学生将本国经济问题作为博士论文的选题。
从芝加哥大学毕业后，林毅夫去耶鲁大学作了一年博士后研究，回国后进入国务院发展研究中心工作，1994年创办北京大学中国经济研究中心。任何事情都急不得，要水到渠成，瓜熟蒂落。
教学方式可分为老师讲授，学生授受型，也可以是师生对话式。前者有利于快捷、系统地传授知识给学生；后者有利于就某一问题进行深入探讨；前者不利于学生的主动思维；后者对学生素质要求高；
授人以鱼不如授人以渔，经济问题总是可以构建合适的经济理论来解释。教育中的经济问题能否通过构建教育经济理论去解释？存在教育经济理论吗？
经济学自亚当•斯密开始，脱离哲学，并以其近乎自然科学的严谨逻辑和研究方法成为社会科学中的显学。
何谓理论？
理论是学者对现象后变量之间因果关系的抽象。是解释现象的一套简单逻辑体系。
·我们必须知道怎样对待现有理论，知道如何取舍，才不会成为现有理论的奴隶。
·理论的目的是解释现象，如果不能解释，就应该按一定的原则和标准修正或摒弃。只有这样才不会学得越多，思想越僵化。
·理论贡献的大小，取决于理论所要解释现象的重要性。
何谓理性？
理性指决策者在决策时，总会从多个选项中，选择他认为最好的选项。理性是经济学的本体。但理性在不同约束条件下表现方式并不一样。
科学的理论，必须具备两个一致性。
一是内部逻辑一致，要环环相扣，自圆其说二是理论的逻辑推论要和解释的现象相符合，要理论与经验一致，外部逻辑一致。
数学是最严谨的一种形式逻辑，但数学是手段而不是目的。
·数学的严谨性与有用性之间有替代关系。数学是一种技巧，数学在经济学中被广泛运用，类似于对仗与韵律在中国古典诗词中的作用。技巧与感情之间有一定的替代关系。同时，数学也是经济学的门槛。
·逻辑性强的人即使不用数学，只用语言也能把因果关系讲清楚。
一分析，三归纳。
“一分析”指要了解决策者是谁，决策者的限制条件，选择范围是什么？每个可选方案的特性是什么，相对机会成本是多少。
“三归纳”其一指的是当代横向归纳法：探讨不同国家地区共同现象背后的共同原因。其二指历史纵向归纳法：从同一国家社会的重要现象变化的先后次序去探索现象发生的原因。即“物有本末，事有终始，知所先后，则近道矣”（《大学》）其三指多现旬综合归纳法：将一时一地同时发生的多个现象综合分析，归纳出这些现象背后的共同原因，而不孤立地分析这些现象。我认为教育比经济更加无章可循。对教育政策进行分析，更需要了解决策者是谁，以及当代其他国家的经验。
为什么学习现有理论？最重要的是学习其他有成就的经济学家是如何建构理论的，学习他们的思维方式，以及从经济现象中抽象出关键限制条件的能力。我们可以将学习现有理论当成方法论上的训练。
有而不有，知而不知。
“有”是指对经济学本体——“理性”的把握。“不有”指的是对任何理论要保持“常无”的心态，不能将理论当成真理本身。
理论的提出，是一个从“渐修”到“顿悟”，从“顿悟”再到“渐修”的循环往复的过程。“生而知之，学而知之，困而知之”（《中庸》）“生而知之”：训练对问题的直觉认识。生而知之的人一见到现象就能明心见性。“学而知之”：作为学生，首要的着力点作好经济学和数学的基本训练（学会构建模型和计量检验），各种理论、文献尽量多学。“用力日久而一旦豁然贯通”（朱熹）
对穷人的救济、扶持是必要的，但是这样的行动只是扬汤止沸，经济学家的最大良心在于推动建立制度环境：每个人的能力得到充分发挥，每个人在追求自己福利的同时也增加了整个社会的福利。说得很好，但做起来很难。
经济学家“好心做坏事”。
“天下大事，坏于奸臣者十之三四；坏于不世故之君子者，倒有十分之六七。”（《老残游记》）
“多谈问题，少谈主义”不要书越读越傻，越意识形态化。
我把经济学家分成三个层次：
第一层次是“经济学教授”（对现有理论熟悉，能归纳总结，能很好地讲解，“画匠”），第二层次是“经济学家”（能提出新的理论，画家），第三层次是“经济学大师”（创建一个新的理论体系）
经济学研究要“本土化、规范化、国际化”。（《经济研究》1995年第10期）
研究对象要本土化，解释我国的问题。既然旧的自律已经失效，只能依靠较为客观的他律。
研究成果要规范化形式规范：要做文献综述，引用他人观点要注明出处，要匿名评审，文章要由本人定稿。这些都属于“形式”规范，是做研究，也是使我国经济学研究成为可积累的科学研究的最起码条件。
方法论规范：要严格检验那些理论推论是否和所解释的经验事实一致，要“不被证伪”。观点很重要，但在写论文时，只讲个人对某个问题的观点、想法和主观愿望，以个人判断或其他经济学家的观点、理论替代逻辑推论，或以比喻代理推理，就难以形成逻辑体系。
存在不可理喻的行为吗？
通常并非行为者不理性，而是研究者对行为者的限制条件不了解，对所研究的经验事实还未吃透。
作为一个研究者，在读文献时，如果只关心观点，而不从方法论上去揣摩，只能说是看热闹。
王婆卖瓜，野人献曝。当今天下，舍我其谁！（孟子）
2008年7月9日星期三
2008年7月5日星期六
GRE Analytical Writing ISSUES习作留存
GRE的考试的议论文写作部分前天已经考完了,自我感觉还可以,今天翻了翻以前的习作,粘在BLOG上面,留存纪念.
第一篇: "when diciding, immediate situation and surroundings affect people more than their internal characteristic."
There have always been two factors have impacts on people's attitude: people's internal characteristic and their immediate situation. Some people believe that the latter's effect on their attitudes is far more important than that of internal characteristic. This opinion seems reasonable, and actually accords with some people's life experiences. However, I do not agree with that. I suppose a person's internal characteristic, such as his or her morality level, knowledge accumulation and even emotional feature, has determined directly the person's attitude.
In the first place, a person's morality level tells him or her whether something is right or wrong when he or she is facing specific problems. Fox example, when the great earthquake happened in Sichuan, China on May 12th, 2008, Most of people tried their best, even taking the risk of sacrificing their lives to save the injured people, while others just ran away from dangerous houses, no matter whether their wives, husbands, students taught are safe or not. If the people's attitude are determined by the immediate situation rather than people's internal characteristics, why people acted so differently when facing similar surroundings? Therefore, we can predict that people's attitude, or even their behavior will be mainly caused by his or her morality level, as a part of his internal characteristic, no matter what specific problems they meet.
In the second place, people's knowledge accumulation, or educational background to a greater extent determines his or her attitude towards a specific issue. When an prehistoric human encountered a heavy thunderstorm, he or she may thought this is the punishment of an undetected god. But what a contemporary person with certain quantity of natural science thinks of this? He or she may suppose that it is only a natural phenomenon. We do not have to worry about that? Compared with those who are illiterate, people with abundant knowledge will certainly learn more about problems or situation they meet, and they will inevitably hold a scientific attitude towards these uncertainties. This conclusion completely refutes the opinion that immediate situation's role in deciding people's attitudes.
In the third place, emotional quota (EQ) is another important factor that has an impact on people's attitudes. As a philosopher said, 'Fortune is mainly determined by personal characteristic.' EQ, as well as IQ, is an important part of people's personal characteristic.
To sum up, immediate situation or surroundings seem to influence a person's attitude, internal characteristic, however, is the major determinant. Although his or her situation or problems are different at different time and places, as long as he has developed a mature personal characteristic, his or her attitude will be less likely to change.
第二篇：ISSUE192 - "Success in any realm of life comes more often from taking chances or risks than from careful and cautious planning."
字数：468 用时：00:45:00 日期：2008-6-30 23:21:49
Some people make careful planning before doing anything, while others only take chances or risks. Which of them are likely to be successful? The answer to this question seems obvious. Making thorough plans before is a necessary part of doing things. The old saying "Think twice before you do it" has been proving this idea. However, consider it more widely and extensively, we may find success does not necessarily need cautious planning in some aspects of life, while in other realms of life, planning seems inevitable.
In most cases, making a careful preparation is necessary for one person or a group to succeed in achieving desired objective. Take the field of engineering for instance, without a thorough scheme for building the atomic bomb, the project group would not have completed this task in such a short period. It is said that only the planning files of the project could take up the space of a whole library. Another example originated from my own life. As members of our college soccer team, my fellow players and I spent five whole afternoons in the playground to discuss how to defend and attack, thus eventually defeated the team from another university. The examples like these is too numerous to be listed. As a result, when we face some important challenges and difficulties in our life and time allows us to do better, we should make a plan as cautious and extensive as possible. After all, preparation makes perfect.
In some cases, when time is not enough for us to prepare for doing something, or if we can handle the situation by our intuition, the best way to do is to take risks, without any planning. When we find someone drowning in the river, we should not consider how to save his or her life in a better way; the only thing to do is to save him or her as soon as possible, whatever method can be used. After all, saving people's lives can be seen successful. In addition, the rapid changing situation in business world is forcing companies' employees to take action promptly; otherwise they will lose in the market. Sometimes even one step faster than your competitors can ensure your leading status in marketing. This is quite true especially in the field of information technology. Plans seem never catch up with changes in CPU design and software programming. Thus, not all realms of life need careful planning.
To sum up, although we must make preparations before we do something, large or tiny, important or less important, like birds must get up early to catch the worms, we should exert our braveness and confidence to take risks when time does not allow us to prepare. Both cautious planning and taking risks can promote our efforts to come close to success.
第三篇：ISSUE14 - "It is necessary for everyone to read poetry, novels, mythology and other types of imaginative literature."
字数：473 用时：00:45:00 日期：2008-6-29 21:44:39
Does imaginative literature make sense to everyone? Some think that it is no use to read poetry, novels or mythology, because the content of these kinds of literature does reflect important issues in contemporary world. Some even suppose that it is a waste of time for an engineer, a surgeon or a person with such jobs to read poetry, for imaginative literature cannot do any good to his or her job. Others, however, hold the opinion that it is necessary for everyone to read some types of imaginative literature, because it is so important for our life and even future. I totally agree with the latter idea.
In the first place, reading novels or mythology can improve readers' imaginative ability, which is an essential part of human intelligence. None of us grow up without imagination. Without Laiter brothers' imagination, the invention of aero plane would be impossible. Without Karl Benz's imagination, we would not enjoy the convenience of modern vehicle transportation. Imagination is so important but not so easy to obtain. Where can we acquire it? The imaginative literature, such as poetry and novels, provides such a wide range of sources.
In the second place, even though those people whose job seems no relation with imaginative literature, imagination is also important. And one's appreciation of such literature can be shared by different people, including your working partner. For instance, the ex-Chinese ambassador of the United States, Li Zhaoxing, is at the same time a great poet. When asked by a reporter what use of poem in foreign affairs, he said that poems, especially well-known ones, can promote a relaxing atmosphere in foreign negotiation. Another is example exists in my real life. One of friends majoring in physics, was offered a vacant post by a famous professor in his faculty, just because he could recite an ancient poem when interviewed. The professor said that my friend must have known our county's glorious past and my friend would certainly be a talented person.
In the third place, If no one read imaginative literature, some good traditions of our nation will be lost, for classic poems, novels or even myth, have recorded a large amount of historical events. We can say that if young generation of the Great Britain did not read any works written by William Shakespeare, Englishmen would lose some precious values respected by their ancestors. In the mean time, if no one in modern China read novels by Lu Xun, China would not have a brilliant future, for all main characters in his novels reflect the weakness of Chinese people. Young people can learn a lot from his novels.
To sum up, although the usage of imaginative literature cannot take effects in the short run, it is surely a valuable source of imagination, knowledge and values. Everyone of us should read some of it.
第四篇: We can usually learn much more from people whose views we share than from people whose views contradict our own; disagreement can cause stress and inhibit learning.
472 words, 50 mins
People always hold different opinions on choosing what kind of person to learn from. Most people think the person whose views we can share is a better teacher than the person whose ideas are different from ours. Some even think contradiction makes stress and inhibit learning. However, I do not agree with this perspective, for learning from person with different views has a number of advantages to obtain knowledge, and it is quite conducive to learn from these people.
First, learning from people with contradicting views can improve our thinking and knowledge, rather than inhibit learning. The Confucius in China once said, 'There will be inevitably a teacher among three persons around you'. This means we can learn from everyone, including the people with different ideas. To listen to the person with contradicting views can help us learn more about the background of the view he or she holds. For example, I used to think that the Buddhist only prays and do nothing good to our society until I met a monk on the train. His experience as a volunteer to raise money for reconstruction of a destroyed village in an earthquake surprised me a lot. He also explained that the Buddhist always does his or her best to benefit our society. This kind of learning from the person with contradicting ideas expands my thoughts about this religion. I suppose that people who are not willing to learn from people with contradicting ideas will certainly be limited in his or her small scale circle. No matter in ordinary life, or in academic field, it is an outstanding way of learning if we can learn from the people with contradicting ideas.
Second, as a graduate student and a future teacher/researcher, learning contradicting views is a way of learning, which cannot be given up. As we all know, disagreement can cause stress and even quarrel, but these experience will benefit the growth of a future scientist. We need some stress to force us to think more deeply and more widely. New ideas in science always originate from disagreement or critics. For example, if Einstein had not opposed the theory of Newton, there would not have been the theory of relativity, a major advance in physics. We cannot imagine what the science today will be if all scientists are conformists, just talking with the people with the same ideas. Of course, the people sharing views with us are easier to communicate and more readily to become friends, but this does not mean we cannot learn from people with different ideas just because of so-called 'stress'.
In a word, although we can learn both from people who share views with us and from those who opposed us, we will learn more from the latter. I think this is a basic principle for every future scientist.
第五篇: "It is more important to allocate money for immediate, existing social problems than to spend it on long-term research that might help future generations."
I don't agree this point of view. To some extent, long-term research, especially the basic scientific research, of which immediate benefit can’t be predicted, is more worthwhile for us to fund, because it can bring us more and larger benefit than we input now.1. Long-term research helps a nation to take a leading step in the future world of science. Take America for example, if there were not a considerable amount of money input in the space exploring, environmental research and information technology in the past decades, we could not imagine that the US. can keep ahead nowadays.2. Long-term research helps science solve the existing social problems that cannot be addressed immediately. For instance, the energy crisis began in the early 1970s has been a real problem. As far as I am concerned, this problem has been causing conflicts among countries, large or small scale. If we invest more into the research about seeking cheaper and more accessible substitutes for oil and coal, we may solve these social problems in another way.3. However, we must admit that a country must choose its investment priority, long-term research or existing social problems solution, according to its level of economic development and the key demand of its citizens. A wise political leader must achieve a certain balance in spending the money collected from the taxpayers. Even if…, In sum, immediate social problems seem important, but long-term research can bring us long-term benefit.
第六篇:It is unfortunate but true that political decisions and activities affect all aspects of people's lives.
In contemporary society, life of every citizen has been greatly influenced by political decisions and activities. This kind of influence either improves the living quality of people and thus welcomed by them, or it sometimes makes people feel uncomfortable, even offended. There should be a balance of our attitude towards this effect.
To begin with, over influence of political decisions and activities on people's lives may pose a negative effect. For example, since the event 'September 11th', a great many American citizens have claimed that their lives have been permeated by everywhere safety inspections, such as in an air-flight to a neighboring state, or in a football match they like. Those kinds of safety inspections are part of national anti-terrorism scheme, which is a typical political decision. The delayed air-flight sometimes make passengers feel irritated, but they cannot do anything about it. This illustrates how a governmental behavior affected private life negatively. That is what we are not expecting and we must make every effort to decrease its bad influence.
However, we should know, in civilized societies, it is the consequence of people's public choice that formed political activities. And these activities have their advantages on people's lives in most cases. In China, there is a public campaign on prohibiting uses of plastic bags in supermarkets and shops. This campaign is sponsored by the central government and implemented by various levels of government. This activity sharply lowered the 'white pollution' caused by thousands and millions of tons of plastic bags, which cannot be recycled effectively. This case shows if a political decision is made to improve people's lives, its effect on people should be seen positively. As the economist Adam Smith said, 'Government should be the night watchman for free market.' This illustrates that as long as the political activities are within the rational boundary, they will certainly be in favor of people's lives.
Furthermore, if there were no political activities, most people's lives would be badly ruined. The world must have been a great garbage pile if there were not any policies of environmental protection. A weak nation must have been invaded by its strong neighbour if there were no defending activities. Overall, if there were no governmental activities, the whole world would be in chaos. We do not live on an isolated island with only single Robinson but in a world with billions of population. To make our world better, people should vote for a government, which will make political decisions.
Overall, political activities may have a bad effect on people's lives, but they also affect positively every aspect of personal survival and development. We cannot look at only one side of the coin. The right attitude towards political activities should be in a balance.
第七篇:"People work more productively in teams than individually. Teamwork requires cooperation, which motivates people much more than individual competition does."
Different People have different productivity and motivation. Some people works far more effectively when they work alone than working in teams, while others are more productive when they work in a group or a team. I think the speaker's opinion is too arbitrary, for a person's productivity of working depends on both his or her personality and the type of team he or she serves. And the extent of motivation of a person is not necessarily higher in a team than work individually.
In the first place, the individual's personality has a great impact on his or her productivity. We can divide people into two different groups: introverts and extroverts. Those who are introverts tend to work more effectively when they work in solitude, without other people's interruptions. People who are extroverts seem to be less efficient when they work alone. In this situation, they may feel no interest in work, saying nothing of high productivity. We cannot force an inaccessible mathematic, who is an expert at solving abstract questions, to work with noisy colleagues. Also, a football player will be more welcomed and motivated when he or she cooperates with fellows well, thus lead to win the game. Therefore, productivity may fisrt?first be influenced by individual's personality, not the number of people's working fellows.
In the second place, the feature of a person’s job or career affects his or her productivity and working motivation. For example, the job as an inventor or an explorer needs time of solitude to work with more efficiency. As far as I am concerned, those jobs which need long period of thinking, reflection and calculation, are suited for people to work individually, not in a team. In another word, people of those jobs are better motivated when are done by himself or herself. However, a manager must work with engineers, technicians and workers to solve existing problems. This kind of work needs more cooperation and cooperation can help improve his or productivity.
In the third place, the organizational characteristic also plays an important role in affecting person's productivity and motivation. When the leader of an organization is open-minded and can easily make its members to work more hard, the productivity of both individual and organization will be increased sharply. For example, when I was in high school, my headteacher frequently encouraged us to achieve our goals and he also made every effort to let us help each other, therefore a cooperative environment in our class formed. Only in this kind of organization, every member would be highly motivated and thus could achieve high productivity. This illustrates that only friendly cooperation can promote high productivity.
Overall, whether an individual's productivity and motivation is high or not has several determinants. Simply saying that cooperation and working in team is better, is not only arbitrary, but easily leads to deviant expectation of the youth as well. Encouraging a person to work in a team he or she can not get along well with, is harmful to his or her career life. I advise people to choose proper working environment for themselves, individually or as a member of a team, to achieve high productivity and motivation.
第八篇: No field of study can advance significantly unless outsiders bring their knowledge and experience to that field of study.
470 words, 45 mins
In the history of science, we can find an obvious fact that one discipline will develop much faster or endure a great heap if other fields of study can transfer their theory, method, knowledge and experience, intentionally or unintentionally, to this field of study. I certainly support what the speaker said according to the fact and my observation as followed.
In the first place, the knowledge and experience from other areas of study can help researchers think and explain the important issues in the original area, and also this kind of disciplinary interaction and participation has already changed the original discipline, even gives birth to new disciplines. For example, a large number of scholars in my country have been arguing that discipline of pedagogy, or educational science, will die out because it lacks the legitimacy and cannot explain, not even solve the real problems in the field of education. The actual situation, however, is that the field of education has been blooming after some traditional social science, such as economics, sociology and even political science, entered this field and tried their best to explain educational phenomena, based on the new perspectives of these disciplines. And now new inter-disciplines, such as economics of education, sociology of education can find their place in the study. Indeed, outsiders of one field of study look like an invader for the researchers of the original discipline, but they are actually participants. They bring new ideas, and make new blood in the old field in order to explain the real world more deeply and more extensively.
In the second place, the evidence that more and more inter-disciplinary studies emerged in the practice of science proves that any discipline is welcoming outsiders to take part in. An attitude of welcome shows they need knowledge and experience to improve themselves, otherwise their advancement will speed down, or even stagnate. Thousands and thousands of academic journals, named such as "Biochemistry", "the economics of education review", are indicating that science is now becoming a seemly non-boundary world. We can see a trend that every discipline has been using wisdom and perspective of others. In the practice, we can also frequently see that a large project is done by a team including investigators with different disciplinary background. As Confucius said, 'There will inevitably be a teacher in the three people around you', we cannot see there are any differences in the field of study.
Overall, no discipline can advance smoothly or even survive in this rapidly changing world if there are no new ideas, perspectives from another discipline or even from an amateur. Every scientist must face this trend positively. This means study is a never-ending process. If we confine ourselves in a small circle and do not prepare to welcome this participation and cooperation, we will certainly fall behind.
第九篇：ISSUE196 - "Technology creates more problems than it solves, and may threaten or damage the quality of life."
字数：466 用时：00:40:46 日期：2008-7-2 15:41:04
Technology is rapidly changing our life and production in contemporary world. People use high technology to solve problems that could never be solved without it. However, a number of problems have also been caused by technology. Some even think technology creates more problems than it solves. This opinion seems reasonable at first glance, but further reflection would prove that it is not persuasive.
In the first place, I should admit that technology has posed some detrimental effect on our life. This effect can be seen or heard in newspapers, televisions, films and even in textbooks for young students. The air pollution caused by waste gas from vehicles has been threatening people's health, although cars and motors give us much convenience. The water pollution resulted from chemical plants has been damaging the quality of water, which cannot be used for drinking. As a result, so-called high technology indeed threatens some aspects of our contemporary life quality, which cannot be neglected.
In the second place, however, technology helps us to solve a large number of problems and has already improved our quality of life. For instance, tele communication makes us speak to each other from all over the world. In other worlds, telecom technology has made our world a small village. Another example is the invention of the Internet. This high technology is so popular that both people and business benefit a lot from it. The examples of technology benefit are too numerous to be listed in such a short passage. None of us can imagine what our world would be like without telephones, televisions, Internet, or other usage of technology.
In the third place, technology can help people learn how to understand our earth and world's future. As a famous scientist put it: 'the exploration of the universe let us know how tiny things we truly are.' This conclusion would never be obtained without the equipment and people outfitted with space technology. Furthermore, without the satellite survey, we would never be concerned with the destroyed tropical rain forests and the warm-house effect caused partly by deforestation. In addition, the wide-spread use of statistic technology in the population census has helped us calculate how many people are given birth in a year, or even in a day. Obviously, equipped with more and more new technology, we can understand the survival and development of human beings has been facing so many challenges. This urgent situation promotes our reflection about our attitude of technology usage.
To sum up, we should understand that technology acts like a double-edged sword. To be beneficial or harmful to human life, depends on the people who use it and how to use it. If people use it not only for contemporary society but also for our descendents, technology will creates more convenience for our world.
第一篇: "when diciding, immediate situation and surroundings affect people more than their internal characteristic."
There have always been two factors have impacts on people's attitude: people's internal characteristic and their immediate situation. Some people believe that the latter's effect on their attitudes is far more important than that of internal characteristic. This opinion seems reasonable, and actually accords with some people's life experiences. However, I do not agree with that. I suppose a person's internal characteristic, such as his or her morality level, knowledge accumulation and even emotional feature, has determined directly the person's attitude.
In the first place, a person's morality level tells him or her whether something is right or wrong when he or she is facing specific problems. Fox example, when the great earthquake happened in Sichuan, China on May 12th, 2008, Most of people tried their best, even taking the risk of sacrificing their lives to save the injured people, while others just ran away from dangerous houses, no matter whether their wives, husbands, students taught are safe or not. If the people's attitude are determined by the immediate situation rather than people's internal characteristics, why people acted so differently when facing similar surroundings? Therefore, we can predict that people's attitude, or even their behavior will be mainly caused by his or her morality level, as a part of his internal characteristic, no matter what specific problems they meet.
In the second place, people's knowledge accumulation, or educational background to a greater extent determines his or her attitude towards a specific issue. When an prehistoric human encountered a heavy thunderstorm, he or she may thought this is the punishment of an undetected god. But what a contemporary person with certain quantity of natural science thinks of this? He or she may suppose that it is only a natural phenomenon. We do not have to worry about that? Compared with those who are illiterate, people with abundant knowledge will certainly learn more about problems or situation they meet, and they will inevitably hold a scientific attitude towards these uncertainties. This conclusion completely refutes the opinion that immediate situation's role in deciding people's attitudes.
In the third place, emotional quota (EQ) is another important factor that has an impact on people's attitudes. As a philosopher said, 'Fortune is mainly determined by personal characteristic.' EQ, as well as IQ, is an important part of people's personal characteristic.
To sum up, immediate situation or surroundings seem to influence a person's attitude, internal characteristic, however, is the major determinant. Although his or her situation or problems are different at different time and places, as long as he has developed a mature personal characteristic, his or her attitude will be less likely to change.
第二篇：ISSUE192 - "Success in any realm of life comes more often from taking chances or risks than from careful and cautious planning."
字数：468 用时：00:45:00 日期：2008-6-30 23:21:49
Some people make careful planning before doing anything, while others only take chances or risks. Which of them are likely to be successful? The answer to this question seems obvious. Making thorough plans before is a necessary part of doing things. The old saying "Think twice before you do it" has been proving this idea. However, consider it more widely and extensively, we may find success does not necessarily need cautious planning in some aspects of life, while in other realms of life, planning seems inevitable.
In most cases, making a careful preparation is necessary for one person or a group to succeed in achieving desired objective. Take the field of engineering for instance, without a thorough scheme for building the atomic bomb, the project group would not have completed this task in such a short period. It is said that only the planning files of the project could take up the space of a whole library. Another example originated from my own life. As members of our college soccer team, my fellow players and I spent five whole afternoons in the playground to discuss how to defend and attack, thus eventually defeated the team from another university. The examples like these is too numerous to be listed. As a result, when we face some important challenges and difficulties in our life and time allows us to do better, we should make a plan as cautious and extensive as possible. After all, preparation makes perfect.
In some cases, when time is not enough for us to prepare for doing something, or if we can handle the situation by our intuition, the best way to do is to take risks, without any planning. When we find someone drowning in the river, we should not consider how to save his or her life in a better way; the only thing to do is to save him or her as soon as possible, whatever method can be used. After all, saving people's lives can be seen successful. In addition, the rapid changing situation in business world is forcing companies' employees to take action promptly; otherwise they will lose in the market. Sometimes even one step faster than your competitors can ensure your leading status in marketing. This is quite true especially in the field of information technology. Plans seem never catch up with changes in CPU design and software programming. Thus, not all realms of life need careful planning.
To sum up, although we must make preparations before we do something, large or tiny, important or less important, like birds must get up early to catch the worms, we should exert our braveness and confidence to take risks when time does not allow us to prepare. Both cautious planning and taking risks can promote our efforts to come close to success.
第三篇：ISSUE14 - "It is necessary for everyone to read poetry, novels, mythology and other types of imaginative literature."
字数：473 用时：00:45:00 日期：2008-6-29 21:44:39
Does imaginative literature make sense to everyone? Some think that it is no use to read poetry, novels or mythology, because the content of these kinds of literature does reflect important issues in contemporary world. Some even suppose that it is a waste of time for an engineer, a surgeon or a person with such jobs to read poetry, for imaginative literature cannot do any good to his or her job. Others, however, hold the opinion that it is necessary for everyone to read some types of imaginative literature, because it is so important for our life and even future. I totally agree with the latter idea.
In the first place, reading novels or mythology can improve readers' imaginative ability, which is an essential part of human intelligence. None of us grow up without imagination. Without Laiter brothers' imagination, the invention of aero plane would be impossible. Without Karl Benz's imagination, we would not enjoy the convenience of modern vehicle transportation. Imagination is so important but not so easy to obtain. Where can we acquire it? The imaginative literature, such as poetry and novels, provides such a wide range of sources.
In the second place, even though those people whose job seems no relation with imaginative literature, imagination is also important. And one's appreciation of such literature can be shared by different people, including your working partner. For instance, the ex-Chinese ambassador of the United States, Li Zhaoxing, is at the same time a great poet. When asked by a reporter what use of poem in foreign affairs, he said that poems, especially well-known ones, can promote a relaxing atmosphere in foreign negotiation. Another is example exists in my real life. One of friends majoring in physics, was offered a vacant post by a famous professor in his faculty, just because he could recite an ancient poem when interviewed. The professor said that my friend must have known our county's glorious past and my friend would certainly be a talented person.
In the third place, If no one read imaginative literature, some good traditions of our nation will be lost, for classic poems, novels or even myth, have recorded a large amount of historical events. We can say that if young generation of the Great Britain did not read any works written by William Shakespeare, Englishmen would lose some precious values respected by their ancestors. In the mean time, if no one in modern China read novels by Lu Xun, China would not have a brilliant future, for all main characters in his novels reflect the weakness of Chinese people. Young people can learn a lot from his novels.
To sum up, although the usage of imaginative literature cannot take effects in the short run, it is surely a valuable source of imagination, knowledge and values. Everyone of us should read some of it.
第四篇: We can usually learn much more from people whose views we share than from people whose views contradict our own; disagreement can cause stress and inhibit learning.
472 words, 50 mins
People always hold different opinions on choosing what kind of person to learn from. Most people think the person whose views we can share is a better teacher than the person whose ideas are different from ours. Some even think contradiction makes stress and inhibit learning. However, I do not agree with this perspective, for learning from person with different views has a number of advantages to obtain knowledge, and it is quite conducive to learn from these people.
First, learning from people with contradicting views can improve our thinking and knowledge, rather than inhibit learning. The Confucius in China once said, 'There will be inevitably a teacher among three persons around you'. This means we can learn from everyone, including the people with different ideas. To listen to the person with contradicting views can help us learn more about the background of the view he or she holds. For example, I used to think that the Buddhist only prays and do nothing good to our society until I met a monk on the train. His experience as a volunteer to raise money for reconstruction of a destroyed village in an earthquake surprised me a lot. He also explained that the Buddhist always does his or her best to benefit our society. This kind of learning from the person with contradicting ideas expands my thoughts about this religion. I suppose that people who are not willing to learn from people with contradicting ideas will certainly be limited in his or her small scale circle. No matter in ordinary life, or in academic field, it is an outstanding way of learning if we can learn from the people with contradicting ideas.
Second, as a graduate student and a future teacher/researcher, learning contradicting views is a way of learning, which cannot be given up. As we all know, disagreement can cause stress and even quarrel, but these experience will benefit the growth of a future scientist. We need some stress to force us to think more deeply and more widely. New ideas in science always originate from disagreement or critics. For example, if Einstein had not opposed the theory of Newton, there would not have been the theory of relativity, a major advance in physics. We cannot imagine what the science today will be if all scientists are conformists, just talking with the people with the same ideas. Of course, the people sharing views with us are easier to communicate and more readily to become friends, but this does not mean we cannot learn from people with different ideas just because of so-called 'stress'.
In a word, although we can learn both from people who share views with us and from those who opposed us, we will learn more from the latter. I think this is a basic principle for every future scientist.
第五篇: "It is more important to allocate money for immediate, existing social problems than to spend it on long-term research that might help future generations."
I don't agree this point of view. To some extent, long-term research, especially the basic scientific research, of which immediate benefit can’t be predicted, is more worthwhile for us to fund, because it can bring us more and larger benefit than we input now.1. Long-term research helps a nation to take a leading step in the future world of science. Take America for example, if there were not a considerable amount of money input in the space exploring, environmental research and information technology in the past decades, we could not imagine that the US. can keep ahead nowadays.2. Long-term research helps science solve the existing social problems that cannot be addressed immediately. For instance, the energy crisis began in the early 1970s has been a real problem. As far as I am concerned, this problem has been causing conflicts among countries, large or small scale. If we invest more into the research about seeking cheaper and more accessible substitutes for oil and coal, we may solve these social problems in another way.3. However, we must admit that a country must choose its investment priority, long-term research or existing social problems solution, according to its level of economic development and the key demand of its citizens. A wise political leader must achieve a certain balance in spending the money collected from the taxpayers. Even if…, In sum, immediate social problems seem important, but long-term research can bring us long-term benefit.
第六篇:It is unfortunate but true that political decisions and activities affect all aspects of people's lives.
In contemporary society, life of every citizen has been greatly influenced by political decisions and activities. This kind of influence either improves the living quality of people and thus welcomed by them, or it sometimes makes people feel uncomfortable, even offended. There should be a balance of our attitude towards this effect.
To begin with, over influence of political decisions and activities on people's lives may pose a negative effect. For example, since the event 'September 11th', a great many American citizens have claimed that their lives have been permeated by everywhere safety inspections, such as in an air-flight to a neighboring state, or in a football match they like. Those kinds of safety inspections are part of national anti-terrorism scheme, which is a typical political decision. The delayed air-flight sometimes make passengers feel irritated, but they cannot do anything about it. This illustrates how a governmental behavior affected private life negatively. That is what we are not expecting and we must make every effort to decrease its bad influence.
However, we should know, in civilized societies, it is the consequence of people's public choice that formed political activities. And these activities have their advantages on people's lives in most cases. In China, there is a public campaign on prohibiting uses of plastic bags in supermarkets and shops. This campaign is sponsored by the central government and implemented by various levels of government. This activity sharply lowered the 'white pollution' caused by thousands and millions of tons of plastic bags, which cannot be recycled effectively. This case shows if a political decision is made to improve people's lives, its effect on people should be seen positively. As the economist Adam Smith said, 'Government should be the night watchman for free market.' This illustrates that as long as the political activities are within the rational boundary, they will certainly be in favor of people's lives.
Furthermore, if there were no political activities, most people's lives would be badly ruined. The world must have been a great garbage pile if there were not any policies of environmental protection. A weak nation must have been invaded by its strong neighbour if there were no defending activities. Overall, if there were no governmental activities, the whole world would be in chaos. We do not live on an isolated island with only single Robinson but in a world with billions of population. To make our world better, people should vote for a government, which will make political decisions.
Overall, political activities may have a bad effect on people's lives, but they also affect positively every aspect of personal survival and development. We cannot look at only one side of the coin. The right attitude towards political activities should be in a balance.
第七篇:"People work more productively in teams than individually. Teamwork requires cooperation, which motivates people much more than individual competition does."
Different People have different productivity and motivation. Some people works far more effectively when they work alone than working in teams, while others are more productive when they work in a group or a team. I think the speaker's opinion is too arbitrary, for a person's productivity of working depends on both his or her personality and the type of team he or she serves. And the extent of motivation of a person is not necessarily higher in a team than work individually.
In the first place, the individual's personality has a great impact on his or her productivity. We can divide people into two different groups: introverts and extroverts. Those who are introverts tend to work more effectively when they work in solitude, without other people's interruptions. People who are extroverts seem to be less efficient when they work alone. In this situation, they may feel no interest in work, saying nothing of high productivity. We cannot force an inaccessible mathematic, who is an expert at solving abstract questions, to work with noisy colleagues. Also, a football player will be more welcomed and motivated when he or she cooperates with fellows well, thus lead to win the game. Therefore, productivity may fisrt?first be influenced by individual's personality, not the number of people's working fellows.
In the second place, the feature of a person’s job or career affects his or her productivity and working motivation. For example, the job as an inventor or an explorer needs time of solitude to work with more efficiency. As far as I am concerned, those jobs which need long period of thinking, reflection and calculation, are suited for people to work individually, not in a team. In another word, people of those jobs are better motivated when are done by himself or herself. However, a manager must work with engineers, technicians and workers to solve existing problems. This kind of work needs more cooperation and cooperation can help improve his or productivity.
In the third place, the organizational characteristic also plays an important role in affecting person's productivity and motivation. When the leader of an organization is open-minded and can easily make its members to work more hard, the productivity of both individual and organization will be increased sharply. For example, when I was in high school, my headteacher frequently encouraged us to achieve our goals and he also made every effort to let us help each other, therefore a cooperative environment in our class formed. Only in this kind of organization, every member would be highly motivated and thus could achieve high productivity. This illustrates that only friendly cooperation can promote high productivity.
Overall, whether an individual's productivity and motivation is high or not has several determinants. Simply saying that cooperation and working in team is better, is not only arbitrary, but easily leads to deviant expectation of the youth as well. Encouraging a person to work in a team he or she can not get along well with, is harmful to his or her career life. I advise people to choose proper working environment for themselves, individually or as a member of a team, to achieve high productivity and motivation.
第八篇: No field of study can advance significantly unless outsiders bring their knowledge and experience to that field of study.
470 words, 45 mins
In the history of science, we can find an obvious fact that one discipline will develop much faster or endure a great heap if other fields of study can transfer their theory, method, knowledge and experience, intentionally or unintentionally, to this field of study. I certainly support what the speaker said according to the fact and my observation as followed.
In the first place, the knowledge and experience from other areas of study can help researchers think and explain the important issues in the original area, and also this kind of disciplinary interaction and participation has already changed the original discipline, even gives birth to new disciplines. For example, a large number of scholars in my country have been arguing that discipline of pedagogy, or educational science, will die out because it lacks the legitimacy and cannot explain, not even solve the real problems in the field of education. The actual situation, however, is that the field of education has been blooming after some traditional social science, such as economics, sociology and even political science, entered this field and tried their best to explain educational phenomena, based on the new perspectives of these disciplines. And now new inter-disciplines, such as economics of education, sociology of education can find their place in the study. Indeed, outsiders of one field of study look like an invader for the researchers of the original discipline, but they are actually participants. They bring new ideas, and make new blood in the old field in order to explain the real world more deeply and more extensively.
In the second place, the evidence that more and more inter-disciplinary studies emerged in the practice of science proves that any discipline is welcoming outsiders to take part in. An attitude of welcome shows they need knowledge and experience to improve themselves, otherwise their advancement will speed down, or even stagnate. Thousands and thousands of academic journals, named such as "Biochemistry", "the economics of education review", are indicating that science is now becoming a seemly non-boundary world. We can see a trend that every discipline has been using wisdom and perspective of others. In the practice, we can also frequently see that a large project is done by a team including investigators with different disciplinary background. As Confucius said, 'There will inevitably be a teacher in the three people around you', we cannot see there are any differences in the field of study.
Overall, no discipline can advance smoothly or even survive in this rapidly changing world if there are no new ideas, perspectives from another discipline or even from an amateur. Every scientist must face this trend positively. This means study is a never-ending process. If we confine ourselves in a small circle and do not prepare to welcome this participation and cooperation, we will certainly fall behind.
第九篇：ISSUE196 - "Technology creates more problems than it solves, and may threaten or damage the quality of life."
字数：466 用时：00:40:46 日期：2008-7-2 15:41:04
Technology is rapidly changing our life and production in contemporary world. People use high technology to solve problems that could never be solved without it. However, a number of problems have also been caused by technology. Some even think technology creates more problems than it solves. This opinion seems reasonable at first glance, but further reflection would prove that it is not persuasive.
In the first place, I should admit that technology has posed some detrimental effect on our life. This effect can be seen or heard in newspapers, televisions, films and even in textbooks for young students. The air pollution caused by waste gas from vehicles has been threatening people's health, although cars and motors give us much convenience. The water pollution resulted from chemical plants has been damaging the quality of water, which cannot be used for drinking. As a result, so-called high technology indeed threatens some aspects of our contemporary life quality, which cannot be neglected.
In the second place, however, technology helps us to solve a large number of problems and has already improved our quality of life. For instance, tele communication makes us speak to each other from all over the world. In other worlds, telecom technology has made our world a small village. Another example is the invention of the Internet. This high technology is so popular that both people and business benefit a lot from it. The examples of technology benefit are too numerous to be listed in such a short passage. None of us can imagine what our world would be like without telephones, televisions, Internet, or other usage of technology.
In the third place, technology can help people learn how to understand our earth and world's future. As a famous scientist put it: 'the exploration of the universe let us know how tiny things we truly are.' This conclusion would never be obtained without the equipment and people outfitted with space technology. Furthermore, without the satellite survey, we would never be concerned with the destroyed tropical rain forests and the warm-house effect caused partly by deforestation. In addition, the wide-spread use of statistic technology in the population census has helped us calculate how many people are given birth in a year, or even in a day. Obviously, equipped with more and more new technology, we can understand the survival and development of human beings has been facing so many challenges. This urgent situation promotes our reflection about our attitude of technology usage.
To sum up, we should understand that technology acts like a double-edged sword. To be beneficial or harmful to human life, depends on the people who use it and how to use it. If people use it not only for contemporary society but also for our descendents, technology will creates more convenience for our world.
GRE Analytical Writing Argument习作留存
第一篇:The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City. "Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year".
500 words, 1 hour.
The argument in the memo that the real estate company should build more houses priced above $150,500 and hire additional workers in order to build larger number of houses because of population and family income increase, as well as a nationwide well sold high-price houses seems logical. However, when considering it more widely and carefully, we can find this argument is not persuasive and even may lead to profits decrease, which is an opposite result.
First, nationwide increased sales of houses above $150000 do not necessarily mean the situation is the same in Steel city. As we know, the statistical mean value may hide a large amount of true information in a specific place or city. On the one hand, the demand for high-price houses in Steel city may not as much as we expected. On the other hand, from the perspective of supply, we do not know how many houses above $150000 in this city cannot be sold to the potential consumers. The market equilibrium only exists when demand and supply is balanced. A false estimate of high-price houses’ sale may result in a chain of bad results for the company.
Second, the argument lacks the specific and exact information for potential purchasing power in Steel city. We just learn that the family incomes have risen faster than the national average, but we do not know how much is the average family income in the city. Does it exceed the national average or is it less than the latter? The argument neglects this key information. Also, even if the average family income is higher than the national average, we still cannot predict the high-price houses will be inevitably well sold, for there maybe a large income disparity among families. If the number of rich families only accounts for a tiny proportion of the whole, it is impossible to sell more high-price houses. In addition, the argument does not tell us the habit of purchasing houses in Steel city and the proportion of families that have already owned houses. These kinds of information is valuable for a real estate company to inquire, however, it is disappointing that we are short of all this information.
Thirdly, the argument does not calculate the increased cost of hiring additional workers, which will be an important factor for profits of the company. It is reported in an magazine of economics that the total cost of hiring a worker is 5 times his wages, for we must improve the working condition and add other necessary invest for increased workers. Even if the cost of workers is not high enough, we should still consider if there are other ways to build the larger number of houses.
In a word, the argument overlooked a lot of factors influential to the profits of the company. If this company can investigate more about the potential house purchasing power in Steel city, they will believe the profitable subsection of the market may not be the high-price house.
第二篇:A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
383 words, 1 hour
The augument supports to open a new restaurant specializing in seafood in Bay city due to the increased consumption of seafood and a number of double-income families. This argument is plausible, however, if we consider it more widely and carefully, we may find that opening a seafood restaurant is not necessarily successful as the argument expected.
First, the growing consumption of seafood dishes in Bay city cannot prove it will be popular to start a seafood restaurant. Different people have differnt eating habit. We do not know whether consumers in Bay city prefer multi-food restaurants or seafood specialized restaurants or not. As we know, seafood is just one kind food that can be served in any restaurant. The resaurant only serving seafood, such as shrimps, may not attract a large number of potential consumers, for they have various food choices in other restaurants. So it will be arbitrary to make a decision of opening seafood resaurants before we learn the eating habit of people in Bay city.
Second, the national survey which shows two-income families are apt to eat outside and concern more about healthy food. But the situation in Bay city may not be the same as shown in this survey. Even though such families in Bay city have a similar eating trend, this does not mean they will pour into the seafood resaurants. It can be imagined that in Bay city there are many kinds of food service, such as Chinese food, Japanese food. We cannot say these kinds of food service are not as healthy as seafood. In fact, there has been a large amount of negative news about seafood resaurant in my city, for the food there was not cooked well enough and even caused food security problems. In other words, seafood is not equal to heathy food. People like healthy food may not choose seafood.
In a word, it is not persuasive enough to open a seafood resaurant in Bay city. Granted me the opportunity to give advice, first, I will suggest the investor to conduct a scientific and wide survey and observe the consumer behavior in resaurants in the city to investigate their eating habit. Second, even if the investor decide to open this resaurant, he should think about the location, food material quality ensurance and other important factors.
第三篇:The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local newspaper. "Five years ago, we residents of Morganton voted to keep the publicly owned piece of land known as Scott Woods in a natural, undeveloped state. Our thinking was that, if no shopping centers or houses were built there, Scott Woods would continue to benefit our community as a natural parkland. But now that our town planning committee wants to purchase the land and build a school there, we should reconsider this issue. If the land becomes a school site, no shopping centers or houses can be built there, and substantial acreage would probably be devoted to athletic fields. There would be no better use of land in our community than this, since a large majority of our children participate in sports, and Scott Woods would continue to benefit our community as natural parkland."
450 words, 40 mins
The argument the citizens have is that the Scott Woods will continue to benefit them as natural parkland because a large amount of land will be used as sports field is very well presented and persuasive. However, if the citizens think of it twice about other possibilities to use the land, they may reconsider this planning.
First, no enough evidence is shown to support that there will be no shopping centers or houses built in that area. As we know, school is now becoming more and more like a small community. I suppose if the committee wants to build a school there, they will think about building attached houses for teachers and students. And shopping centers may also be on the schedule of the planning committee. If so, the residents of Morganton will be suffering from the noise and heavy traffic from the shopping centers and houses. In addition, the residents do not obtain the information about the size of school, the number of students and what kind of school it will be. Perhaps the school is designed for accommodating more students out of Morganton, then the population of this place will be growing. These kinds of information were all ignored by the residents. Scott Woods may be not a place that benefits the community as natural parkland.
Second, the town planning committee does not prove there will be substantial acreage used for athletic fields. In other words, the sports field for the residents' children may also be a never coming-true dream. As I mentioned above, why the designer must sacrifice a large area in that place to build athletic fields? This space room can also be used to build a library, a school hospital, or even a small square, just like most schools do. If so, the future school will only benefit their students, not the whole community. Even if a sports field is to be built, it is possible that the children in the community are not willing to go there to participate in sports. Perhaps the children are not apt to pass the school gate, or the sports field is fully occupied by the school children themselves, not our community boys and girls. Another reason is the committee does not claim on the rights of our community children to enter this school for sports activities or just jogging.
Overall, the argument that Scott Woods will continue benefit the community as natural parkland is naive to some extent. I advise that before any final decisions made about agreeing or disagreeing building a school, the residents and local governors should consider other alternatives for using this land, to make this place retain its original characteristic as much as possible.
第四篇:第一稿(31 mins, 343 words)25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell."Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
In the argument, by comparison with the town of Ocean View, the arguer pointed out that the town of Hopewell should imporve its economy by building a golf course and resort hotel. At first glance, the argument seem reasonable. But if we take further consideration, we can find that the argument lacks credibility.
In the first place, there is no enough evidence to support that the improved economy and increased tax revenues are caused by building the new golf course or resort hotel. In other words, it is possible that other factors improved its economy. Such factors may include the increased manufacturing industry or other service sectors' rapid development. Perhaps the there is a new factory that improved its tax revenues sharply. In addition, a short period of two years cannot provide us sufficient evidence that its economy necessarily caused by the resort hotel. Therefore, we cannot prove Ocean view's economy results from the given reasons.
In the second place, the arguer does not give us sufficient evidence to show that two towns can be compared. First, it is possible that two towns economical scale is considerably different. After all, we do not have the statistics about the economy in Ocean View. Perhaps its economy scale is so small that only one resort hotel can increas its tax revenues sharply, while the economy of Hopewell is so large that just a golf course is like a water drop in the ocean. Also, the argument lacks the differences of economic structure and geographical environment between two towns. Maybe there are more places of interests in Ocean View while Hopewell has a tradition of manufacturing. Overall, it is not persuasive to compare these two towns.
To sum up, the argument to improve Hopewell's economy by building golf course and resort hotel is too hasty. before any final measures to take, the mayor and the citizens in Hopewell should evaluate other posssiblities to improve its economy, such as building more factories, otherwise its economy may be suffered from taking similar measures to those in Ocean view.
第四篇:第二稿(30 mins, 400 words)In this argument, by comparison with Ocean View, a town building a new golf course and resort hotel, therefore its economy and tourism increased and tax revenues risen, the arguer pointed out that the town of Hopewell should take similar measures to improve its economy. At first glance, the argument seems reasonable, however, if we consider it more thoroughly, we can find that this argument is not persuasive.
In the fisrt place, we cannot conclude that the economy improvement in Ocean View are necessarily caused by the golf course and resort hotel. A number of factors may inflence the economy in Ocean View. Such factors may include better infrastructure and more manufacturing factories. It is possible that more people in Ocean View have been employed in the past two years, thus made contributions to its increased tax revenues. In addition, a short period of two years cannot prove that the economy improvement is due to the facilities built. That is to say, a two-year period does not give us persuasive evidence to evaluate economic growth.
In the second place, there is no enough evidence to support that taking the same measures to those in Ocean View can surely improve economy of Hopewell. It is possible that the economic scale, such as GDP in Hopewell, is far larger than that in Ocean View. Therefore, a new golf course or resort hotel can improve Ocean View's tourism sharply, while these measures do not pose any positive effects on economhy of Hopewell. Also, the argument is short of information about differences of economic structure between two towns. Perhaps Hopewell has already possessed a large number of resort hotels. In this situation, one more hotel is nothing to its tourism at all. If Ocean View does not have any tourism facilities, a golf course will be considerably beneficial to its economy. Furthmore, there is not any information about the customs in Hopewell. It is possible that the people here do not welcome the tourists from outside. Therefore, it maybe a false analogy between two towns.
To sum up, the reasons to improve Hopewell's economy and tax revenues by building tourism facilities seems logical. But these reasons are lacking credibility. Before any final decesions are made about building these facilities, the mayor and the citizens of Hopewell should evaluate other alternatives, such as building more factories, to improve its economy, as compared to Ocean View.
第五篇:The arguer concludes that the decline in physical fitness of people in Corpora does not result from the too much time computer using, but from the recent economy slow development. The argument seem reasonable, for econmic advancement sometimes has a correlation with people's healthy level. However, if we examine this argument more carefully, we can find how groundless it is.
In the first place, there is no evidence shows economic slow development led to the decline in physical health. Computer's extensivly use proves that this country has at least a medium income. In places like here, basic food and housing service can be guaranteed. It is impossible that slow economy growth rate could result in physical fitness decline. One possible reason may be lack of physical excercise, as shown in many developed countries. And too much time using computer will inevitably lead to lack of excercise, which perhaps has a result of decline in physical fitness.
In the second place, The author does not prove that computer ownership has a positive correlation with physical fitness. The fact that fitness levels are highest in areas where levels of computer ownership are also highest does not provide sufficient evidence. It is possible that in the regions where computer ownership is high, the people has high awareness of physical health. Perhaps the people with longer time using computer do the exercise more, thus lead to better physical condition.
In the third place, we do not obtain enough information to show the period of decline in the economy acords with that of decline in people's health. The arguer just mention that economy happened recently. But what does "recently" mean? If it means two decades, it is possible that economy has a relation with people's physical condition. However, nobody knows how long the economy in the country has been declining. As a result, we cannnot establish a stable correlation between two kinds of decline.
To sum up, the argument does not prove that economy development decline led to physical health decline of people. The arguer should evaluate other possible factors that enfluence physical fitness of people. The imagined correlation should be examined carefully.
第六篇:The following appeared in a newsletter on dental health."A recent research study reported the experience of dentists whose patients had, over a period of five years, regularly used Flux Dental Floss as part of their dental hygiene routine. The report indicates that these dentists had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than did dentists whose patients did not use Flux regularly. In addition, most of the Flux users who were surveyed by their dentists agreed that Flux's mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often. Thus, even though Flux may cost more than other brands of floss, it is clearly a worthwhile investment for those who want to be assured of healthy teeth and gums."
30 min, 408 words
The argument concludes that the patients should buy and use more Flux dental floss to assure of healthy teath and gums. This argument is based on two reasons. One is that the patients using Flux regularly had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than who did not in a research study. The other is that the flavor of Flux can encourage people to floss more. These two reasons seems reasonable at first glance. But further examination will show how groundless the argument is.
In the first place, There is no convincing evidence to show that Flux dental floss is an effective way to cure dental disease. Flux dental floss is only a part of dentists' hygine routine. This means that 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease may be caused by other factors. These factors may include careful examination of the dentists and other medicine prescribed. In addition, in the argument, we cannot find any evidence proving Flux dental floss is better than other brands of dental floss. Perhaps the patients using other brands of floss will benefit the same as using Flux dental floss. It is a pity the argument does not give us any relevant information or data. As a result, the argument that Flux is better is a hasty generalization.
In the second place, The arguer does not persuade us that the Flux dental floss will be accepted by most of the patients. Flux's mint flavor certainly attracts some Flux users, otherwise they will not use it. But how do we conclude that this mint flavor will necessarily encourage other people to floss more often? As far as I am concerned, not all people like this kind of flavor, some even feel uncomfortable when mint flaovr smelled. Thus, it is arbitrary to say that Flux will be welcomed by all patients.
Finally, the arguer neglects a lot of other factors. First, there must be some people do not tend to use floss because of various reasons. For example, some people with small teeth gap may have difficulties using floss. Second, Flux will cost more. The arguer does not provide any information about the price comparison Flux with other brands. I think if the Flux's price is too high, patients will turn to other alternatives.
To sum up, the reasoning behind the argument seems logical but not persuasive enough. Patients may not choose Flux as a worthwile investment to keep their teeth and gums healthy.
第七篇:By comparing College Edelston, a college holding annual reunions for all classes and thus receive most of alumni donations during or after these reunions, with Appleby College, where class reunions are held every five years, the author argues the Appleby college should offer similar reunions every year. This argument seems logical at first glance, but if we take a further examination, we will find how groundless this argument is.
In the first place, the recommendation cannot prove that these two colleges are comparable. There are a number of factors may help encourage alumni to donate to their college. The reason maybe a lot of graduates from the college have been successful in business or other fields. Edelston seems to be a college like that. It is possible that Edelston offer such programs as MBA, which is highly rewarded after graduation. Perhaps Appleby is only a small-scale community college, offering vocational education and training, of which graduates simply take jobs of low salaries. In this case, Appleby cannot expect they can receive large amount of donations from its alumni. Also, these two colleges may not be in the same place. It is possible that Edelston is in economically advanced areas while Appleby is in an area which has a lagged economy development. As a result, Appleby does not necessarily learn from Edelston in taking similar measures to receive more donations.
In the second place, no evidence shows that annual reunions with a lot of activities increase donations for Edelston. The donations received may be the contribution of its employees' hardworking endeavor to communicate with its alumni, rather than only class reunions. Also, are annual reunions better than reunions every five years? And are reunions with banquets are better than a simple ceremony? The answers to these questions seem not absolutely yes.
Finally, the author does not consider other disadvantages of offering similar reunions for each class every year. First, the alumni maybe too busy to take part in these reunions, especially for those who work between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Second, the cost of banquets and lectures maybe too high for a small-scale college to afford. There is not necessarily a pay-off to hold similar activities. In addition, can Appleby guarantee that more alumni will be attracted by these reunions? I don't think the answer is yes.
To sum up, taking similar measures as Edelston do to receive more donations from alumni seems reasonable, but before any final decisions are made, the president of Appleby College should evaluate other possible ways to encourage alumni to donate.
第八篇：ARGUMENT103 - Blue City Highway had always been notorious for its tight curves and poor roadway visibility, and the accident rate there was generally very high. Last year the highway was redesigned to broaden the curves and improve roadway visibility. Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement. But the number of accidents on the highway has not been significantly lower in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign. Therefore, the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference.
字数：405 用时：00:30:00 日期：2008-6-28 10:31:38
The author concludes that the redesign did not improve the curves and roadway visibility based on the fact that the number of accidents has not been significantly lower in six months after the redesign than in the six months before the redesign. At first glance, the argument seems reasonable because of the comparable statistic. However, if we consider it more thoroughly, we can find this argument has got a fallacy of hasty generalization.
In the first place, the feeling of the drivers of road improvement is the most reliable to evaluate the road. In the case, the drivers feel much safer after the redesign happened. It is possible that it is this sense of safety that makes the driver to speed up, thus, the accidents has not been sharply lowered. If the average speed on this highway exceeds 150 kilometers per hour, the accident rate will certainly be higher even if the curves have been broadened and the visibility of roadway has been improved. In addition, the number of accidents is not the only criteria to evaluate the redesign. The comfort ability and traffic capacity should not be neglected in assessing the redesign. It is a pity that the arguer does not provide any statistic about these factors. If the road after redesign can allow more vehicles, we can also say that the road improvement is successful.
In the second place, a short period of six months cannot provide sufficient evidence to prove the redesign has not made a difference. There are a number of factors may contribute to the accidents on the highway. These factors may include heavy traffic or bad weather. It is possible that after the redesign more and more drivers have been attracted to drive on this highway, thus led to traffic jam or even traffic accidents. Also, perhaps after the redesign the foggy season of winter has come. As we all know, winter has a high rate of vehicle accidents. As a result, six month is such a short time that we cannot evaluate the actual improvement of the highway.
To sum up, the reasoning behind the argument which only depends on the number of accidents in a short period of six month is well presented, but not persuasive enough. I advise the road bureau should not only evaluate the redesign in the long run, but also consider other index, such as the number of injuries in the accidents in evaluating the redesign.
第九篇:"In a recent survey, most students who were studying beginning Russian gave higher course-evaluation ratings to classes taught by non-native Russian speakers than to classes taught by native Russian speakers. The reason that the non-native speakers were better teachers of Russian is easy to see: the non-native speakers learned Russian later in life themselves, and so they have a better understanding of how the language can be taught effectively. Therefore, in order to improve instruction for all languages and also save money, our university should hire non-native speakers as language instructors instead of trying to find and recruit native speakers."
WORDS: 385 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-6-26 23:50:31
The author concludes that non-native speakers are better than native speakers as language teachers based on two reasons. First, non-native teachers were given higher course-evaluation ratings. Second, non-native teachers have a better understanding of how to teach language. The author also thinks it is better to hire non-native speakers as language instructors, for it help improve teaching and save money. This argument seems reasonable, but further examination will find how groundless it is.
In the first place, there is not enough evidence showing that non-native speakers are better. The reason why non-native teachers were given higher evaluation ratings maybe their students were just language beginners. It is possible that they did not understand what native teachers said for they speak Russian too fluently and fast. But this cannnot prove non-native teachers are better. In addition, the author does not give us any evidence to show that non-native teachers understand how to teacher better and more effectively. As we know, native speakers have more knowledge and background to teach their language to foreigners. They obviously attract students more and can encourage their students to learn accurate pronounciation. However, non-native speakers do not have these advantages. As a result, the generalization that non-native teachers are better is too hasty.
In the second place. The author does not point out the reason why all languages should be taught by non-native languages. It is possible that beginning Russian is so easy that a non-native language can teach it well. But what about other foreign languages, such as French or German? Scientific research shows that foreign languages, especially at intermediate or advanced level, are better taught by native speakers, for they know more about the stories behind words and sentences in their own languages.
Finally, the author neglect a number of other disadvantages of hiring non-native speakers. First, students may give a cold welcome to these teachers because they want to communicate with native speakers more often, rather than with non-native teachers. Second, hiring non-native speakers does not necessarily save money, for teachers' salaries are higher than before, no matter where they are from.
To sum up, This argument that hiring non-native speakers to teach all languages seems logical but actually not well-reasoned. Before the policy makers accept this advice, they should evaluate all advantages and disadvantages of this suggestion.
500 words, 1 hour.
The argument in the memo that the real estate company should build more houses priced above $150,500 and hire additional workers in order to build larger number of houses because of population and family income increase, as well as a nationwide well sold high-price houses seems logical. However, when considering it more widely and carefully, we can find this argument is not persuasive and even may lead to profits decrease, which is an opposite result.
First, nationwide increased sales of houses above $150000 do not necessarily mean the situation is the same in Steel city. As we know, the statistical mean value may hide a large amount of true information in a specific place or city. On the one hand, the demand for high-price houses in Steel city may not as much as we expected. On the other hand, from the perspective of supply, we do not know how many houses above $150000 in this city cannot be sold to the potential consumers. The market equilibrium only exists when demand and supply is balanced. A false estimate of high-price houses’ sale may result in a chain of bad results for the company.
Second, the argument lacks the specific and exact information for potential purchasing power in Steel city. We just learn that the family incomes have risen faster than the national average, but we do not know how much is the average family income in the city. Does it exceed the national average or is it less than the latter? The argument neglects this key information. Also, even if the average family income is higher than the national average, we still cannot predict the high-price houses will be inevitably well sold, for there maybe a large income disparity among families. If the number of rich families only accounts for a tiny proportion of the whole, it is impossible to sell more high-price houses. In addition, the argument does not tell us the habit of purchasing houses in Steel city and the proportion of families that have already owned houses. These kinds of information is valuable for a real estate company to inquire, however, it is disappointing that we are short of all this information.
Thirdly, the argument does not calculate the increased cost of hiring additional workers, which will be an important factor for profits of the company. It is reported in an magazine of economics that the total cost of hiring a worker is 5 times his wages, for we must improve the working condition and add other necessary invest for increased workers. Even if the cost of workers is not high enough, we should still consider if there are other ways to build the larger number of houses.
In a word, the argument overlooked a lot of factors influential to the profits of the company. If this company can investigate more about the potential house purchasing power in Steel city, they will believe the profitable subsection of the market may not be the high-price house.
第二篇:A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
383 words, 1 hour
The augument supports to open a new restaurant specializing in seafood in Bay city due to the increased consumption of seafood and a number of double-income families. This argument is plausible, however, if we consider it more widely and carefully, we may find that opening a seafood restaurant is not necessarily successful as the argument expected.
First, the growing consumption of seafood dishes in Bay city cannot prove it will be popular to start a seafood restaurant. Different people have differnt eating habit. We do not know whether consumers in Bay city prefer multi-food restaurants or seafood specialized restaurants or not. As we know, seafood is just one kind food that can be served in any restaurant. The resaurant only serving seafood, such as shrimps, may not attract a large number of potential consumers, for they have various food choices in other restaurants. So it will be arbitrary to make a decision of opening seafood resaurants before we learn the eating habit of people in Bay city.
Second, the national survey which shows two-income families are apt to eat outside and concern more about healthy food. But the situation in Bay city may not be the same as shown in this survey. Even though such families in Bay city have a similar eating trend, this does not mean they will pour into the seafood resaurants. It can be imagined that in Bay city there are many kinds of food service, such as Chinese food, Japanese food. We cannot say these kinds of food service are not as healthy as seafood. In fact, there has been a large amount of negative news about seafood resaurant in my city, for the food there was not cooked well enough and even caused food security problems. In other words, seafood is not equal to heathy food. People like healthy food may not choose seafood.
In a word, it is not persuasive enough to open a seafood resaurant in Bay city. Granted me the opportunity to give advice, first, I will suggest the investor to conduct a scientific and wide survey and observe the consumer behavior in resaurants in the city to investigate their eating habit. Second, even if the investor decide to open this resaurant, he should think about the location, food material quality ensurance and other important factors.
第三篇:The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local newspaper. "Five years ago, we residents of Morganton voted to keep the publicly owned piece of land known as Scott Woods in a natural, undeveloped state. Our thinking was that, if no shopping centers or houses were built there, Scott Woods would continue to benefit our community as a natural parkland. But now that our town planning committee wants to purchase the land and build a school there, we should reconsider this issue. If the land becomes a school site, no shopping centers or houses can be built there, and substantial acreage would probably be devoted to athletic fields. There would be no better use of land in our community than this, since a large majority of our children participate in sports, and Scott Woods would continue to benefit our community as natural parkland."
450 words, 40 mins
The argument the citizens have is that the Scott Woods will continue to benefit them as natural parkland because a large amount of land will be used as sports field is very well presented and persuasive. However, if the citizens think of it twice about other possibilities to use the land, they may reconsider this planning.
First, no enough evidence is shown to support that there will be no shopping centers or houses built in that area. As we know, school is now becoming more and more like a small community. I suppose if the committee wants to build a school there, they will think about building attached houses for teachers and students. And shopping centers may also be on the schedule of the planning committee. If so, the residents of Morganton will be suffering from the noise and heavy traffic from the shopping centers and houses. In addition, the residents do not obtain the information about the size of school, the number of students and what kind of school it will be. Perhaps the school is designed for accommodating more students out of Morganton, then the population of this place will be growing. These kinds of information were all ignored by the residents. Scott Woods may be not a place that benefits the community as natural parkland.
Second, the town planning committee does not prove there will be substantial acreage used for athletic fields. In other words, the sports field for the residents' children may also be a never coming-true dream. As I mentioned above, why the designer must sacrifice a large area in that place to build athletic fields? This space room can also be used to build a library, a school hospital, or even a small square, just like most schools do. If so, the future school will only benefit their students, not the whole community. Even if a sports field is to be built, it is possible that the children in the community are not willing to go there to participate in sports. Perhaps the children are not apt to pass the school gate, or the sports field is fully occupied by the school children themselves, not our community boys and girls. Another reason is the committee does not claim on the rights of our community children to enter this school for sports activities or just jogging.
Overall, the argument that Scott Woods will continue benefit the community as natural parkland is naive to some extent. I advise that before any final decisions made about agreeing or disagreeing building a school, the residents and local governors should consider other alternatives for using this land, to make this place retain its original characteristic as much as possible.
第四篇:第一稿(31 mins, 343 words)25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell."Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
In the argument, by comparison with the town of Ocean View, the arguer pointed out that the town of Hopewell should imporve its economy by building a golf course and resort hotel. At first glance, the argument seem reasonable. But if we take further consideration, we can find that the argument lacks credibility.
In the first place, there is no enough evidence to support that the improved economy and increased tax revenues are caused by building the new golf course or resort hotel. In other words, it is possible that other factors improved its economy. Such factors may include the increased manufacturing industry or other service sectors' rapid development. Perhaps the there is a new factory that improved its tax revenues sharply. In addition, a short period of two years cannot provide us sufficient evidence that its economy necessarily caused by the resort hotel. Therefore, we cannot prove Ocean view's economy results from the given reasons.
In the second place, the arguer does not give us sufficient evidence to show that two towns can be compared. First, it is possible that two towns economical scale is considerably different. After all, we do not have the statistics about the economy in Ocean View. Perhaps its economy scale is so small that only one resort hotel can increas its tax revenues sharply, while the economy of Hopewell is so large that just a golf course is like a water drop in the ocean. Also, the argument lacks the differences of economic structure and geographical environment between two towns. Maybe there are more places of interests in Ocean View while Hopewell has a tradition of manufacturing. Overall, it is not persuasive to compare these two towns.
To sum up, the argument to improve Hopewell's economy by building golf course and resort hotel is too hasty. before any final measures to take, the mayor and the citizens in Hopewell should evaluate other posssiblities to improve its economy, such as building more factories, otherwise its economy may be suffered from taking similar measures to those in Ocean view.
第四篇:第二稿(30 mins, 400 words)In this argument, by comparison with Ocean View, a town building a new golf course and resort hotel, therefore its economy and tourism increased and tax revenues risen, the arguer pointed out that the town of Hopewell should take similar measures to improve its economy. At first glance, the argument seems reasonable, however, if we consider it more thoroughly, we can find that this argument is not persuasive.
In the fisrt place, we cannot conclude that the economy improvement in Ocean View are necessarily caused by the golf course and resort hotel. A number of factors may inflence the economy in Ocean View. Such factors may include better infrastructure and more manufacturing factories. It is possible that more people in Ocean View have been employed in the past two years, thus made contributions to its increased tax revenues. In addition, a short period of two years cannot prove that the economy improvement is due to the facilities built. That is to say, a two-year period does not give us persuasive evidence to evaluate economic growth.
In the second place, there is no enough evidence to support that taking the same measures to those in Ocean View can surely improve economy of Hopewell. It is possible that the economic scale, such as GDP in Hopewell, is far larger than that in Ocean View. Therefore, a new golf course or resort hotel can improve Ocean View's tourism sharply, while these measures do not pose any positive effects on economhy of Hopewell. Also, the argument is short of information about differences of economic structure between two towns. Perhaps Hopewell has already possessed a large number of resort hotels. In this situation, one more hotel is nothing to its tourism at all. If Ocean View does not have any tourism facilities, a golf course will be considerably beneficial to its economy. Furthmore, there is not any information about the customs in Hopewell. It is possible that the people here do not welcome the tourists from outside. Therefore, it maybe a false analogy between two towns.
To sum up, the reasons to improve Hopewell's economy and tax revenues by building tourism facilities seems logical. But these reasons are lacking credibility. Before any final decesions are made about building these facilities, the mayor and the citizens of Hopewell should evaluate other alternatives, such as building more factories, to improve its economy, as compared to Ocean View.
第五篇:The arguer concludes that the decline in physical fitness of people in Corpora does not result from the too much time computer using, but from the recent economy slow development. The argument seem reasonable, for econmic advancement sometimes has a correlation with people's healthy level. However, if we examine this argument more carefully, we can find how groundless it is.
In the first place, there is no evidence shows economic slow development led to the decline in physical health. Computer's extensivly use proves that this country has at least a medium income. In places like here, basic food and housing service can be guaranteed. It is impossible that slow economy growth rate could result in physical fitness decline. One possible reason may be lack of physical excercise, as shown in many developed countries. And too much time using computer will inevitably lead to lack of excercise, which perhaps has a result of decline in physical fitness.
In the second place, The author does not prove that computer ownership has a positive correlation with physical fitness. The fact that fitness levels are highest in areas where levels of computer ownership are also highest does not provide sufficient evidence. It is possible that in the regions where computer ownership is high, the people has high awareness of physical health. Perhaps the people with longer time using computer do the exercise more, thus lead to better physical condition.
In the third place, we do not obtain enough information to show the period of decline in the economy acords with that of decline in people's health. The arguer just mention that economy happened recently. But what does "recently" mean? If it means two decades, it is possible that economy has a relation with people's physical condition. However, nobody knows how long the economy in the country has been declining. As a result, we cannnot establish a stable correlation between two kinds of decline.
To sum up, the argument does not prove that economy development decline led to physical health decline of people. The arguer should evaluate other possible factors that enfluence physical fitness of people. The imagined correlation should be examined carefully.
第六篇:The following appeared in a newsletter on dental health."A recent research study reported the experience of dentists whose patients had, over a period of five years, regularly used Flux Dental Floss as part of their dental hygiene routine. The report indicates that these dentists had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than did dentists whose patients did not use Flux regularly. In addition, most of the Flux users who were surveyed by their dentists agreed that Flux's mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often. Thus, even though Flux may cost more than other brands of floss, it is clearly a worthwhile investment for those who want to be assured of healthy teeth and gums."
30 min, 408 words
The argument concludes that the patients should buy and use more Flux dental floss to assure of healthy teath and gums. This argument is based on two reasons. One is that the patients using Flux regularly had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than who did not in a research study. The other is that the flavor of Flux can encourage people to floss more. These two reasons seems reasonable at first glance. But further examination will show how groundless the argument is.
In the first place, There is no convincing evidence to show that Flux dental floss is an effective way to cure dental disease. Flux dental floss is only a part of dentists' hygine routine. This means that 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease may be caused by other factors. These factors may include careful examination of the dentists and other medicine prescribed. In addition, in the argument, we cannot find any evidence proving Flux dental floss is better than other brands of dental floss. Perhaps the patients using other brands of floss will benefit the same as using Flux dental floss. It is a pity the argument does not give us any relevant information or data. As a result, the argument that Flux is better is a hasty generalization.
In the second place, The arguer does not persuade us that the Flux dental floss will be accepted by most of the patients. Flux's mint flavor certainly attracts some Flux users, otherwise they will not use it. But how do we conclude that this mint flavor will necessarily encourage other people to floss more often? As far as I am concerned, not all people like this kind of flavor, some even feel uncomfortable when mint flaovr smelled. Thus, it is arbitrary to say that Flux will be welcomed by all patients.
Finally, the arguer neglects a lot of other factors. First, there must be some people do not tend to use floss because of various reasons. For example, some people with small teeth gap may have difficulties using floss. Second, Flux will cost more. The arguer does not provide any information about the price comparison Flux with other brands. I think if the Flux's price is too high, patients will turn to other alternatives.
To sum up, the reasoning behind the argument seems logical but not persuasive enough. Patients may not choose Flux as a worthwile investment to keep their teeth and gums healthy.
第七篇:By comparing College Edelston, a college holding annual reunions for all classes and thus receive most of alumni donations during or after these reunions, with Appleby College, where class reunions are held every five years, the author argues the Appleby college should offer similar reunions every year. This argument seems logical at first glance, but if we take a further examination, we will find how groundless this argument is.
In the first place, the recommendation cannot prove that these two colleges are comparable. There are a number of factors may help encourage alumni to donate to their college. The reason maybe a lot of graduates from the college have been successful in business or other fields. Edelston seems to be a college like that. It is possible that Edelston offer such programs as MBA, which is highly rewarded after graduation. Perhaps Appleby is only a small-scale community college, offering vocational education and training, of which graduates simply take jobs of low salaries. In this case, Appleby cannot expect they can receive large amount of donations from its alumni. Also, these two colleges may not be in the same place. It is possible that Edelston is in economically advanced areas while Appleby is in an area which has a lagged economy development. As a result, Appleby does not necessarily learn from Edelston in taking similar measures to receive more donations.
In the second place, no evidence shows that annual reunions with a lot of activities increase donations for Edelston. The donations received may be the contribution of its employees' hardworking endeavor to communicate with its alumni, rather than only class reunions. Also, are annual reunions better than reunions every five years? And are reunions with banquets are better than a simple ceremony? The answers to these questions seem not absolutely yes.
Finally, the author does not consider other disadvantages of offering similar reunions for each class every year. First, the alumni maybe too busy to take part in these reunions, especially for those who work between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Second, the cost of banquets and lectures maybe too high for a small-scale college to afford. There is not necessarily a pay-off to hold similar activities. In addition, can Appleby guarantee that more alumni will be attracted by these reunions? I don't think the answer is yes.
To sum up, taking similar measures as Edelston do to receive more donations from alumni seems reasonable, but before any final decisions are made, the president of Appleby College should evaluate other possible ways to encourage alumni to donate.
第八篇：ARGUMENT103 - Blue City Highway had always been notorious for its tight curves and poor roadway visibility, and the accident rate there was generally very high. Last year the highway was redesigned to broaden the curves and improve roadway visibility. Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement. But the number of accidents on the highway has not been significantly lower in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign. Therefore, the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference.
字数：405 用时：00:30:00 日期：2008-6-28 10:31:38
The author concludes that the redesign did not improve the curves and roadway visibility based on the fact that the number of accidents has not been significantly lower in six months after the redesign than in the six months before the redesign. At first glance, the argument seems reasonable because of the comparable statistic. However, if we consider it more thoroughly, we can find this argument has got a fallacy of hasty generalization.
In the first place, the feeling of the drivers of road improvement is the most reliable to evaluate the road. In the case, the drivers feel much safer after the redesign happened. It is possible that it is this sense of safety that makes the driver to speed up, thus, the accidents has not been sharply lowered. If the average speed on this highway exceeds 150 kilometers per hour, the accident rate will certainly be higher even if the curves have been broadened and the visibility of roadway has been improved. In addition, the number of accidents is not the only criteria to evaluate the redesign. The comfort ability and traffic capacity should not be neglected in assessing the redesign. It is a pity that the arguer does not provide any statistic about these factors. If the road after redesign can allow more vehicles, we can also say that the road improvement is successful.
In the second place, a short period of six months cannot provide sufficient evidence to prove the redesign has not made a difference. There are a number of factors may contribute to the accidents on the highway. These factors may include heavy traffic or bad weather. It is possible that after the redesign more and more drivers have been attracted to drive on this highway, thus led to traffic jam or even traffic accidents. Also, perhaps after the redesign the foggy season of winter has come. As we all know, winter has a high rate of vehicle accidents. As a result, six month is such a short time that we cannot evaluate the actual improvement of the highway.
To sum up, the reasoning behind the argument which only depends on the number of accidents in a short period of six month is well presented, but not persuasive enough. I advise the road bureau should not only evaluate the redesign in the long run, but also consider other index, such as the number of injuries in the accidents in evaluating the redesign.
第九篇:"In a recent survey, most students who were studying beginning Russian gave higher course-evaluation ratings to classes taught by non-native Russian speakers than to classes taught by native Russian speakers. The reason that the non-native speakers were better teachers of Russian is easy to see: the non-native speakers learned Russian later in life themselves, and so they have a better understanding of how the language can be taught effectively. Therefore, in order to improve instruction for all languages and also save money, our university should hire non-native speakers as language instructors instead of trying to find and recruit native speakers."
WORDS: 385 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-6-26 23:50:31
The author concludes that non-native speakers are better than native speakers as language teachers based on two reasons. First, non-native teachers were given higher course-evaluation ratings. Second, non-native teachers have a better understanding of how to teach language. The author also thinks it is better to hire non-native speakers as language instructors, for it help improve teaching and save money. This argument seems reasonable, but further examination will find how groundless it is.
In the first place, there is not enough evidence showing that non-native speakers are better. The reason why non-native teachers were given higher evaluation ratings maybe their students were just language beginners. It is possible that they did not understand what native teachers said for they speak Russian too fluently and fast. But this cannnot prove non-native teachers are better. In addition, the author does not give us any evidence to show that non-native teachers understand how to teacher better and more effectively. As we know, native speakers have more knowledge and background to teach their language to foreigners. They obviously attract students more and can encourage their students to learn accurate pronounciation. However, non-native speakers do not have these advantages. As a result, the generalization that non-native teachers are better is too hasty.
In the second place. The author does not point out the reason why all languages should be taught by non-native languages. It is possible that beginning Russian is so easy that a non-native language can teach it well. But what about other foreign languages, such as French or German? Scientific research shows that foreign languages, especially at intermediate or advanced level, are better taught by native speakers, for they know more about the stories behind words and sentences in their own languages.
Finally, the author neglect a number of other disadvantages of hiring non-native speakers. First, students may give a cold welcome to these teachers because they want to communicate with native speakers more often, rather than with non-native teachers. Second, hiring non-native speakers does not necessarily save money, for teachers' salaries are higher than before, no matter where they are from.
To sum up, This argument that hiring non-native speakers to teach all languages seems logical but actually not well-reasoned. Before the policy makers accept this advice, they should evaluate all advantages and disadvantages of this suggestion.
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