第一篇:The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City. "Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year".
500 words, 1 hour.
The argument in the memo that the real estate company should build more houses priced above $150,500 and hire additional workers in order to build larger number of houses because of population and family income increase, as well as a nationwide well sold high-price houses seems logical. However, when considering it more widely and carefully, we can find this argument is not persuasive and even may lead to profits decrease, which is an opposite result.
First, nationwide increased sales of houses above $150000 do not necessarily mean the situation is the same in Steel city. As we know, the statistical mean value may hide a large amount of true information in a specific place or city. On the one hand, the demand for high-price houses in Steel city may not as much as we expected. On the other hand, from the perspective of supply, we do not know how many houses above $150000 in this city cannot be sold to the potential consumers. The market equilibrium only exists when demand and supply is balanced. A false estimate of high-price houses’ sale may result in a chain of bad results for the company.
Second, the argument lacks the specific and exact information for potential purchasing power in Steel city. We just learn that the family incomes have risen faster than the national average, but we do not know how much is the average family income in the city. Does it exceed the national average or is it less than the latter? The argument neglects this key information. Also, even if the average family income is higher than the national average, we still cannot predict the high-price houses will be inevitably well sold, for there maybe a large income disparity among families. If the number of rich families only accounts for a tiny proportion of the whole, it is impossible to sell more high-price houses. In addition, the argument does not tell us the habit of purchasing houses in Steel city and the proportion of families that have already owned houses. These kinds of information is valuable for a real estate company to inquire, however, it is disappointing that we are short of all this information.
Thirdly, the argument does not calculate the increased cost of hiring additional workers, which will be an important factor for profits of the company. It is reported in an magazine of economics that the total cost of hiring a worker is 5 times his wages, for we must improve the working condition and add other necessary invest for increased workers. Even if the cost of workers is not high enough, we should still consider if there are other ways to build the larger number of houses.
In a word, the argument overlooked a lot of factors influential to the profits of the company. If this company can investigate more about the potential house purchasing power in Steel city, they will believe the profitable subsection of the market may not be the high-price house.
第二篇:A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
383 words, 1 hour
The augument supports to open a new restaurant specializing in seafood in Bay city due to the increased consumption of seafood and a number of double-income families. This argument is plausible, however, if we consider it more widely and carefully, we may find that opening a seafood restaurant is not necessarily successful as the argument expected.
First, the growing consumption of seafood dishes in Bay city cannot prove it will be popular to start a seafood restaurant. Different people have differnt eating habit. We do not know whether consumers in Bay city prefer multi-food restaurants or seafood specialized restaurants or not. As we know, seafood is just one kind food that can be served in any restaurant. The resaurant only serving seafood, such as shrimps, may not attract a large number of potential consumers, for they have various food choices in other restaurants. So it will be arbitrary to make a decision of opening seafood resaurants before we learn the eating habit of people in Bay city.
Second, the national survey which shows two-income families are apt to eat outside and concern more about healthy food. But the situation in Bay city may not be the same as shown in this survey. Even though such families in Bay city have a similar eating trend, this does not mean they will pour into the seafood resaurants. It can be imagined that in Bay city there are many kinds of food service, such as Chinese food, Japanese food. We cannot say these kinds of food service are not as healthy as seafood. In fact, there has been a large amount of negative news about seafood resaurant in my city, for the food there was not cooked well enough and even caused food security problems. In other words, seafood is not equal to heathy food. People like healthy food may not choose seafood.
In a word, it is not persuasive enough to open a seafood resaurant in Bay city. Granted me the opportunity to give advice, first, I will suggest the investor to conduct a scientific and wide survey and observe the consumer behavior in resaurants in the city to investigate their eating habit. Second, even if the investor decide to open this resaurant, he should think about the location, food material quality ensurance and other important factors.
第三篇:The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local newspaper. "Five years ago, we residents of Morganton voted to keep the publicly owned piece of land known as Scott Woods in a natural, undeveloped state. Our thinking was that, if no shopping centers or houses were built there, Scott Woods would continue to benefit our community as a natural parkland. But now that our town planning committee wants to purchase the land and build a school there, we should reconsider this issue. If the land becomes a school site, no shopping centers or houses can be built there, and substantial acreage would probably be devoted to athletic fields. There would be no better use of land in our community than this, since a large majority of our children participate in sports, and Scott Woods would continue to benefit our community as natural parkland."
450 words, 40 mins
The argument the citizens have is that the Scott Woods will continue to benefit them as natural parkland because a large amount of land will be used as sports field is very well presented and persuasive. However, if the citizens think of it twice about other possibilities to use the land, they may reconsider this planning.
First, no enough evidence is shown to support that there will be no shopping centers or houses built in that area. As we know, school is now becoming more and more like a small community. I suppose if the committee wants to build a school there, they will think about building attached houses for teachers and students. And shopping centers may also be on the schedule of the planning committee. If so, the residents of Morganton will be suffering from the noise and heavy traffic from the shopping centers and houses. In addition, the residents do not obtain the information about the size of school, the number of students and what kind of school it will be. Perhaps the school is designed for accommodating more students out of Morganton, then the population of this place will be growing. These kinds of information were all ignored by the residents. Scott Woods may be not a place that benefits the community as natural parkland.
Second, the town planning committee does not prove there will be substantial acreage used for athletic fields. In other words, the sports field for the residents' children may also be a never coming-true dream. As I mentioned above, why the designer must sacrifice a large area in that place to build athletic fields? This space room can also be used to build a library, a school hospital, or even a small square, just like most schools do. If so, the future school will only benefit their students, not the whole community. Even if a sports field is to be built, it is possible that the children in the community are not willing to go there to participate in sports. Perhaps the children are not apt to pass the school gate, or the sports field is fully occupied by the school children themselves, not our community boys and girls. Another reason is the committee does not claim on the rights of our community children to enter this school for sports activities or just jogging.
Overall, the argument that Scott Woods will continue benefit the community as natural parkland is naive to some extent. I advise that before any final decisions made about agreeing or disagreeing building a school, the residents and local governors should consider other alternatives for using this land, to make this place retain its original characteristic as much as possible.
第四篇:第一稿(31 mins, 343 words)25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell."Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
In the argument, by comparison with the town of Ocean View, the arguer pointed out that the town of Hopewell should imporve its economy by building a golf course and resort hotel. At first glance, the argument seem reasonable. But if we take further consideration, we can find that the argument lacks credibility.
In the first place, there is no enough evidence to support that the improved economy and increased tax revenues are caused by building the new golf course or resort hotel. In other words, it is possible that other factors improved its economy. Such factors may include the increased manufacturing industry or other service sectors' rapid development. Perhaps the there is a new factory that improved its tax revenues sharply. In addition, a short period of two years cannot provide us sufficient evidence that its economy necessarily caused by the resort hotel. Therefore, we cannot prove Ocean view's economy results from the given reasons.
In the second place, the arguer does not give us sufficient evidence to show that two towns can be compared. First, it is possible that two towns economical scale is considerably different. After all, we do not have the statistics about the economy in Ocean View. Perhaps its economy scale is so small that only one resort hotel can increas its tax revenues sharply, while the economy of Hopewell is so large that just a golf course is like a water drop in the ocean. Also, the argument lacks the differences of economic structure and geographical environment between two towns. Maybe there are more places of interests in Ocean View while Hopewell has a tradition of manufacturing. Overall, it is not persuasive to compare these two towns.
To sum up, the argument to improve Hopewell's economy by building golf course and resort hotel is too hasty. before any final measures to take, the mayor and the citizens in Hopewell should evaluate other posssiblities to improve its economy, such as building more factories, otherwise its economy may be suffered from taking similar measures to those in Ocean view.
第四篇:第二稿(30 mins, 400 words)In this argument, by comparison with Ocean View, a town building a new golf course and resort hotel, therefore its economy and tourism increased and tax revenues risen, the arguer pointed out that the town of Hopewell should take similar measures to improve its economy. At first glance, the argument seems reasonable, however, if we consider it more thoroughly, we can find that this argument is not persuasive.
In the fisrt place, we cannot conclude that the economy improvement in Ocean View are necessarily caused by the golf course and resort hotel. A number of factors may inflence the economy in Ocean View. Such factors may include better infrastructure and more manufacturing factories. It is possible that more people in Ocean View have been employed in the past two years, thus made contributions to its increased tax revenues. In addition, a short period of two years cannot prove that the economy improvement is due to the facilities built. That is to say, a two-year period does not give us persuasive evidence to evaluate economic growth.
In the second place, there is no enough evidence to support that taking the same measures to those in Ocean View can surely improve economy of Hopewell. It is possible that the economic scale, such as GDP in Hopewell, is far larger than that in Ocean View. Therefore, a new golf course or resort hotel can improve Ocean View's tourism sharply, while these measures do not pose any positive effects on economhy of Hopewell. Also, the argument is short of information about differences of economic structure between two towns. Perhaps Hopewell has already possessed a large number of resort hotels. In this situation, one more hotel is nothing to its tourism at all. If Ocean View does not have any tourism facilities, a golf course will be considerably beneficial to its economy. Furthmore, there is not any information about the customs in Hopewell. It is possible that the people here do not welcome the tourists from outside. Therefore, it maybe a false analogy between two towns.
To sum up, the reasons to improve Hopewell's economy and tax revenues by building tourism facilities seems logical. But these reasons are lacking credibility. Before any final decesions are made about building these facilities, the mayor and the citizens of Hopewell should evaluate other alternatives, such as building more factories, to improve its economy, as compared to Ocean View.
第五篇:The arguer concludes that the decline in physical fitness of people in Corpora does not result from the too much time computer using, but from the recent economy slow development. The argument seem reasonable, for econmic advancement sometimes has a correlation with people's healthy level. However, if we examine this argument more carefully, we can find how groundless it is.
In the first place, there is no evidence shows economic slow development led to the decline in physical health. Computer's extensivly use proves that this country has at least a medium income. In places like here, basic food and housing service can be guaranteed. It is impossible that slow economy growth rate could result in physical fitness decline. One possible reason may be lack of physical excercise, as shown in many developed countries. And too much time using computer will inevitably lead to lack of excercise, which perhaps has a result of decline in physical fitness.
In the second place, The author does not prove that computer ownership has a positive correlation with physical fitness. The fact that fitness levels are highest in areas where levels of computer ownership are also highest does not provide sufficient evidence. It is possible that in the regions where computer ownership is high, the people has high awareness of physical health. Perhaps the people with longer time using computer do the exercise more, thus lead to better physical condition.
In the third place, we do not obtain enough information to show the period of decline in the economy acords with that of decline in people's health. The arguer just mention that economy happened recently. But what does "recently" mean? If it means two decades, it is possible that economy has a relation with people's physical condition. However, nobody knows how long the economy in the country has been declining. As a result, we cannnot establish a stable correlation between two kinds of decline.
To sum up, the argument does not prove that economy development decline led to physical health decline of people. The arguer should evaluate other possible factors that enfluence physical fitness of people. The imagined correlation should be examined carefully.
第六篇:The following appeared in a newsletter on dental health."A recent research study reported the experience of dentists whose patients had, over a period of five years, regularly used Flux Dental Floss as part of their dental hygiene routine. The report indicates that these dentists had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than did dentists whose patients did not use Flux regularly. In addition, most of the Flux users who were surveyed by their dentists agreed that Flux's mint flavor would encourage people to floss more often. Thus, even though Flux may cost more than other brands of floss, it is clearly a worthwhile investment for those who want to be assured of healthy teeth and gums."
30 min, 408 words
The argument concludes that the patients should buy and use more Flux dental floss to assure of healthy teath and gums. This argument is based on two reasons. One is that the patients using Flux regularly had 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease than who did not in a research study. The other is that the flavor of Flux can encourage people to floss more. These two reasons seems reasonable at first glance. But further examination will show how groundless the argument is.
In the first place, There is no convincing evidence to show that Flux dental floss is an effective way to cure dental disease. Flux dental floss is only a part of dentists' hygine routine. This means that 50 percent fewer cases of gum disease may be caused by other factors. These factors may include careful examination of the dentists and other medicine prescribed. In addition, in the argument, we cannot find any evidence proving Flux dental floss is better than other brands of dental floss. Perhaps the patients using other brands of floss will benefit the same as using Flux dental floss. It is a pity the argument does not give us any relevant information or data. As a result, the argument that Flux is better is a hasty generalization.
In the second place, The arguer does not persuade us that the Flux dental floss will be accepted by most of the patients. Flux's mint flavor certainly attracts some Flux users, otherwise they will not use it. But how do we conclude that this mint flavor will necessarily encourage other people to floss more often? As far as I am concerned, not all people like this kind of flavor, some even feel uncomfortable when mint flaovr smelled. Thus, it is arbitrary to say that Flux will be welcomed by all patients.
Finally, the arguer neglects a lot of other factors. First, there must be some people do not tend to use floss because of various reasons. For example, some people with small teeth gap may have difficulties using floss. Second, Flux will cost more. The arguer does not provide any information about the price comparison Flux with other brands. I think if the Flux's price is too high, patients will turn to other alternatives.
To sum up, the reasoning behind the argument seems logical but not persuasive enough. Patients may not choose Flux as a worthwile investment to keep their teeth and gums healthy.
第七篇:By comparing College Edelston, a college holding annual reunions for all classes and thus receive most of alumni donations during or after these reunions, with Appleby College, where class reunions are held every five years, the author argues the Appleby college should offer similar reunions every year. This argument seems logical at first glance, but if we take a further examination, we will find how groundless this argument is.
In the first place, the recommendation cannot prove that these two colleges are comparable. There are a number of factors may help encourage alumni to donate to their college. The reason maybe a lot of graduates from the college have been successful in business or other fields. Edelston seems to be a college like that. It is possible that Edelston offer such programs as MBA, which is highly rewarded after graduation. Perhaps Appleby is only a small-scale community college, offering vocational education and training, of which graduates simply take jobs of low salaries. In this case, Appleby cannot expect they can receive large amount of donations from its alumni. Also, these two colleges may not be in the same place. It is possible that Edelston is in economically advanced areas while Appleby is in an area which has a lagged economy development. As a result, Appleby does not necessarily learn from Edelston in taking similar measures to receive more donations.
In the second place, no evidence shows that annual reunions with a lot of activities increase donations for Edelston. The donations received may be the contribution of its employees' hardworking endeavor to communicate with its alumni, rather than only class reunions. Also, are annual reunions better than reunions every five years? And are reunions with banquets are better than a simple ceremony? The answers to these questions seem not absolutely yes.
Finally, the author does not consider other disadvantages of offering similar reunions for each class every year. First, the alumni maybe too busy to take part in these reunions, especially for those who work between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Second, the cost of banquets and lectures maybe too high for a small-scale college to afford. There is not necessarily a pay-off to hold similar activities. In addition, can Appleby guarantee that more alumni will be attracted by these reunions? I don't think the answer is yes.
To sum up, taking similar measures as Edelston do to receive more donations from alumni seems reasonable, but before any final decisions are made, the president of Appleby College should evaluate other possible ways to encourage alumni to donate.
第八篇：ARGUMENT103 - Blue City Highway had always been notorious for its tight curves and poor roadway visibility, and the accident rate there was generally very high. Last year the highway was redesigned to broaden the curves and improve roadway visibility. Drivers report that they now feel much safer driving on the highway and that the redesign has been a big improvement. But the number of accidents on the highway has not been significantly lower in the six months since the redesign than it was in the six months before the redesign. Therefore, the redesign clearly did not improve the curves and roadway visibility enough to make a difference.
字数：405 用时：00:30:00 日期：2008-6-28 10:31:38
The author concludes that the redesign did not improve the curves and roadway visibility based on the fact that the number of accidents has not been significantly lower in six months after the redesign than in the six months before the redesign. At first glance, the argument seems reasonable because of the comparable statistic. However, if we consider it more thoroughly, we can find this argument has got a fallacy of hasty generalization.
In the first place, the feeling of the drivers of road improvement is the most reliable to evaluate the road. In the case, the drivers feel much safer after the redesign happened. It is possible that it is this sense of safety that makes the driver to speed up, thus, the accidents has not been sharply lowered. If the average speed on this highway exceeds 150 kilometers per hour, the accident rate will certainly be higher even if the curves have been broadened and the visibility of roadway has been improved. In addition, the number of accidents is not the only criteria to evaluate the redesign. The comfort ability and traffic capacity should not be neglected in assessing the redesign. It is a pity that the arguer does not provide any statistic about these factors. If the road after redesign can allow more vehicles, we can also say that the road improvement is successful.
In the second place, a short period of six months cannot provide sufficient evidence to prove the redesign has not made a difference. There are a number of factors may contribute to the accidents on the highway. These factors may include heavy traffic or bad weather. It is possible that after the redesign more and more drivers have been attracted to drive on this highway, thus led to traffic jam or even traffic accidents. Also, perhaps after the redesign the foggy season of winter has come. As we all know, winter has a high rate of vehicle accidents. As a result, six month is such a short time that we cannot evaluate the actual improvement of the highway.
To sum up, the reasoning behind the argument which only depends on the number of accidents in a short period of six month is well presented, but not persuasive enough. I advise the road bureau should not only evaluate the redesign in the long run, but also consider other index, such as the number of injuries in the accidents in evaluating the redesign.
第九篇:"In a recent survey, most students who were studying beginning Russian gave higher course-evaluation ratings to classes taught by non-native Russian speakers than to classes taught by native Russian speakers. The reason that the non-native speakers were better teachers of Russian is easy to see: the non-native speakers learned Russian later in life themselves, and so they have a better understanding of how the language can be taught effectively. Therefore, in order to improve instruction for all languages and also save money, our university should hire non-native speakers as language instructors instead of trying to find and recruit native speakers."
WORDS: 385 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-6-26 23:50:31
The author concludes that non-native speakers are better than native speakers as language teachers based on two reasons. First, non-native teachers were given higher course-evaluation ratings. Second, non-native teachers have a better understanding of how to teach language. The author also thinks it is better to hire non-native speakers as language instructors, for it help improve teaching and save money. This argument seems reasonable, but further examination will find how groundless it is.
In the first place, there is not enough evidence showing that non-native speakers are better. The reason why non-native teachers were given higher evaluation ratings maybe their students were just language beginners. It is possible that they did not understand what native teachers said for they speak Russian too fluently and fast. But this cannnot prove non-native teachers are better. In addition, the author does not give us any evidence to show that non-native teachers understand how to teacher better and more effectively. As we know, native speakers have more knowledge and background to teach their language to foreigners. They obviously attract students more and can encourage their students to learn accurate pronounciation. However, non-native speakers do not have these advantages. As a result, the generalization that non-native teachers are better is too hasty.
In the second place. The author does not point out the reason why all languages should be taught by non-native languages. It is possible that beginning Russian is so easy that a non-native language can teach it well. But what about other foreign languages, such as French or German? Scientific research shows that foreign languages, especially at intermediate or advanced level, are better taught by native speakers, for they know more about the stories behind words and sentences in their own languages.
Finally, the author neglect a number of other disadvantages of hiring non-native speakers. First, students may give a cold welcome to these teachers because they want to communicate with native speakers more often, rather than with non-native teachers. Second, hiring non-native speakers does not necessarily save money, for teachers' salaries are higher than before, no matter where they are from.
To sum up, This argument that hiring non-native speakers to teach all languages seems logical but actually not well-reasoned. Before the policy makers accept this advice, they should evaluate all advantages and disadvantages of this suggestion.
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